Is Google going nowhere?

Todays Issue of Business Week questions where Google is headed

In an article headed

Google: A $50 Billion "One-Trick Pony"? Its focus on Web-searching -- an increasingly limited arena -- may be blinding it to big opportunities elsewhere

It points out

Google remains almost entirely dependent for growth on search -- a business that's poised to slow.

And whilst acknowleding that Google has been sucessful in getting revenue from Search, then goes on to say

But Google's belief in search may be blinding the company to other opportunities. To see what they risk missing out on, Google execs need look no further than key rival Yahoo! (YHOO ), which tirelessly looks for new business models. While search accounts for 45% of Yahoo's sales, the portal also snares one-third of its revenues from so-called display ads that contain graphics and multimedia, as well as 16% of sales from subscription services, such as online personals and fantasy football. By comparison, Google gleans 98% of its sales from text ads, primarily placed around search results.

They do not see much growth from Gmail

So even if targeted e-mail ads take off -- a questionable proposition, since most industry observers believe e-mailers are far less likely to click on links than searchers -- the money will come from the same budgets that buy the rest of Google's ads.

Business Week is equivocal as to where display ads will lead and concludes with

Google, rightly, has plenty to tackle in its core business of search. But those aren't the only opportunities for the search kingpin. Others deserve exploration, lest its narrow focus become a case of tunnel vision.

One really does wonder whether in say two years time, the world will have passed Google by. For those of you that recall Captain Queeg in the Caine Mutiny

Ah, but the strawberries! That's where I had them. They laughed at me and made jokes, but I proved beyond the shadow of a doubt, and with geometric logic, that a duplicate key to the wardroom icebox did exist!